Showing posts with label screen method. Show all posts
Showing posts with label screen method. Show all posts

Monday, April 22, 2013

3 Strong-Yielding Russell 1000 Stocks That Have Hiked Payouts By At Least 7% For 5 Years


Disclosure: I am long STX(More...)
I have searched for very profitable companies that are included in the Russell 1000 index that pay rich dividends, and that have raised their payouts significantly each year.
The Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index and includes approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000 represents approximately 92% of the U.S. market. The Russell 1000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the large-cap segment and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are reflected.
I have elaborated a screening method, which shows stock candidates following these lines. Nonetheless, the screening method should only serve as a basis for further research. All the data for this article were taken from Yahoo Finance and finviz.com.
The screen's formula requires all stocks to comply with all following demands:
  1. Dividend yield is greater than 4.40%.
  2. The payout ratio is less than 75%.
  3. The annual rate of dividend growth over the past five years is greater than 7%.
  4. Trailing P/E is less than 15.
  5. Forward P/E is less than 13.
After running this screen on April 21, 2013, I discovered the following three stocks:
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Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX)
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. engages in the exploration of mineral resource properties. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, cobalt, silver, and other metals, such as rhenium and magnetite.
Freeport-McMoRan has a very low debt (total debt to equity is only 0.20), and it has a very low trailing P/E of 8.85 and a very low forward P/E of 6.11. The forward annual dividend yield is quite high at 4.43%, and the payout ratio is only 39%. The annual rate of dividend growth over the past five years was quite high at 7.40%, and over the last ten years was very high at 21.40%.
The FCX stock is trading 33.6% below its 52-week high, and has 41.4% upside potential based on the consensus mean target price of $39.93.
On April 18, Freeport-McMoRan reported its first-quarter 2013 financial results, which beat EPS expectations by $0.02 and beat on revenues. Net income attributable to common stock for first-quarter 2013 was $648 million, $0.68 per share, compared with net income of $764 million, $0.80 per share, for first-quarter 2012. Consolidated sales from mines for first-quarter 2013 totaled 954 million pounds of copper, 214 thousand ounces of gold and 25 million pounds of molybdenum, compared with 827 million pounds of copper, 288 thousand ounces of gold and 21 million pounds of molybdenum for first-quarter 2012.
In the report, James R. Moffett, Chairman of the Board, and Richard C. Adkerson, President and Chief Executive Officer, said:
Our first-quarter results reflect our focus on strong and safe production, aggressive cost management and advancing financially attractive projects to grow our copper production, increase cash flows and provide strong returns for shareholders. We also completed attractive financing transactions during the quarter, providing low-cost debt to fund the pending oil and gas acquisitions. We look forward to completing the transactions in the second quarter and to executing our strategy of developing long-term resources to generate long-term value for shareholders through expanded investment opportunities.
The compelling valuation metrics, the 41.4% upside potential based on the consensus mean target price of $39.93, the rich dividend and the fact that the company consistently has raised dividend payments are all factors that make FCX stock quite attractive.
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Chart: finviz.com
Lorillard, Inc. (LO)
Lorillard, Inc. manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Cigarettes and Electronic Cigarettes.
Lorillard has a very low trailing P/E of 14.67 and a very low forward P/E of 12.20. The average annual earnings growth estimates for the next 5 years is quite high at 9.10%. The forward annual dividend yield is very high at 5.34%, and the payout ratio is at 74%. The annual rate of dividend growth over the past five years was very high at 13.86%.
The LO stock is trading 0.98% above its 20-day simple moving average, 2.91% above its 50-day simple moving average, and 4.01% above its 200-day simple moving average. That indicates a short-term, mid-term and long-term uptrend.
Lorillard will report its latest quarterly financial results on April 24. LO is expected to post a profit of $0.64 a share, a 10.3% rise from the company's actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. The reported results will probably affect the stock price in the short term.
All these factors -- the very low multiples, the rich dividend, the fact that the company consistently has raised dividend payments and the fact that the stock is in an uptrend -- make LO stock quite attractive.
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Chart: finviz.com
Seagate Technology Public Limited Company (STX)
Seagate Technology Public Limited Company designs, manufactures, markets and sells hard disk drives for enterprise storage, client compute, and client non-compute market applications worldwide.
Seagate has an extremely low trailing P/E of 4.55 and a very low forward P/E of 6.30. The price to free cash flow for the trailing 12 months is very low at 4.04, and the price-to-sales ratio is also very low at 0.76. The forward annual dividend yield is quite high at 4.41%, and the payout ratio is only 18%. The annual rate of dividend growth over the past five years was very high at 28.24%, and over the last ten years was also very high at 29.46%.
Seagate will report its latest quarterly financial results on May 1. STX is expected to post a profit of $0.84 a share, a 56% decline from the company's actual earnings for the same quarter a year ago. The reported results will probably affect the stock price in the short term.
Despite the expected earnings decline, the very cheap valuation metrics, the rich dividend and the fact that the company consistently has raised dividend payments are all factors that make STX stock quite attractive.
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Chart: finviz.com

Friday, April 19, 2013

10 Piotroski Stocks To Beat The Market


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
I have searched for a screening method, which has proven to perform much better than the main indexes of the U.S. stock markets. The following screen by Portfolio123, which draws inspiration from the work of the well-known investor, Joseph Piotroski, is such a screen. Nonetheless, the screening method should only serve as a basis for further research. Joseph Piotroski is an American professor who specializes in accounting and financial reporting issues, and an active value-based investor.
The screen's formula requires all stocks to comply with all following demands:
  1. Stock is not traded over-the-counter.
  2. Earnings per Share trailing twelve months above zero.
  3. Operating Income above zero.
  4. Operating cash flow per share above zero.
  5. Gross margin improved in the past year.
  6. Operating cash flow per share above EPS.
  7. Total debt to assets ratio down in past year.
  8. Current ratio improved in the past year.
  9. Asset turnover improved in the past year.
  10. Return on assets improved in the past year.
  11. Number of outstanding shares did not rise in the past year.
  12. The 10 stocks with the highest gross margin among all the stocks that complied with the first eleven demands.
I used the Portfolio123's powerful screener to perform the search and to run the back-tests. All the data for this article were taken from Portfolio123. After running this screen on April 19, 2013, before the market open, I discovered the following ten stocks: Cyberonics Inc (CYBX), Verisign Inc (VRSN), Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste SA De CV (ASR), Sirona Dental Systems Inc (SIRO), Procter & Gamble Co (PG), Henry (JACK) & Associates Inc. (JKHY), Bio Reference Laboratories Inc (BRLI), Fiserv Inc. (FISV), Tyler Technologies Inc (TYL) and Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO).
The table below presents the 10 companies, their last price, their market cap and their industry.
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The table below presents the earnings per share for the trailing twelve months (TTM), the operating cash flow per share, the gross margin, the gross margin a year before, the debt to assets ratio for the last quarter and for the year before for the 10 companies.
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The table below presents the current ratio, the current ratio a year before, the asset turnover, the asset turnover a year before, the return on assets and the return on assets a year before for the ten companies.
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Back-testing
In order to find out how such a screening formula would have performed during the last year, last five years and last 14 years, I ran the back-tests, which are available by the Portfolio123's screener.
The back-test takes into account running the screen every four weeks and replacing the stocks that no longer comply with the screening requirement with other stocks that comply with the requirement. The theoretical return is calculated in comparison to the benchmark (S&P 500), considering 0.25% slippage for each trade and 1.5% annual carry cost (broker cost). The back-tests results are shown in the charts and the tables below.
One year back-test
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Five years back-test
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Fourteen years back-test
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Summary
The Piotroski inspired screen has given much better returns during the last year, the last five years and the last 14 years than the S&P 500 benchmark. The Sharpe ratio, which measures the ratio of reward to risk, was also much better in all the three tests. Although the past guarantees nothing, it does provide insight into how this screen has performed under various economic conditions over varying time frames.